Finance: IIF, new global debt record at 315 thousand billion dollars, 333% of world GDP.
Global debt is on a run, rising by $1.3 trillion in the first quarter of 2024, reaching a new all-time high of over $315 trillion, or 333% of global GDP. The Institute of International Finance reports that this increase marks the second consecutive quarterly increase and was driven primarily by emerging markets, where debt rose to an unprecedented level of over $105 trillion, $55 trillion more than a decade ago. Most of this emerging market increase came from China, India, and Mexico in the first quarter of 2024. In contrast, Korea, Thailand, and Brazil saw the most significant declines in the dollar value of their total debt.
Total debt levels in advanced economies remained broadly stable in the first quarter, as deleveraging of household and non-financial corporate debt offset the continued rise in public and financial sector debt. The overall increase was concentrated mainly in the United States and Japan, followed by Ireland and Canada, while the most significant declines were observed in Switzerland and Germany.
The IIF speaks of a “multi-faceted new normal” on the debt front. Indeed, while the relatively optimistic near-term global economic outlook is a positive factor for debt dynamics, persistent inflation, particularly in the United States, continues to pose a significant risk, putting upward pressure on global financing costs. While the health of household balance sheets should provide a buffer against “higher long-term rates” monetary policy in the near term, government budget deficits are still higher than pre-pandemic levels and are expected to contribute around $5.3 trillion to global debt growth this year.
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